[UCI-Calit2] Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Science Issues

[Anna Lynn Spitzer]

You are invited 

 

Seminar:                     Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Science
Issues

 

Speaker:                    John Schaake, consultant, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Hydrologic Development

 

Time:                          11 a.m. 

 

Date:                           Wednesday, August 5, 2009

 

Location:                    Calit2 Auditorium 

  

Abstract:                     This presentation will include a quick
overview of the components of the hydrologic ensemble forecast system
being developed for use by NWS River Forecast Centers. Some of the key
areas where research is most needed will be highlighted. These include:
(i) accounting for effects of upstream river regulation; (ii)
post-processing hydrologic forecast ensemble members; (iii)
pre-processing weather and climate forecast information from multiple
sources to produce a seamless, reliable and skillful set of ensemble
precipitation and temperature members for major river basins (e.g. the
Mississippi); and, (iv) accounting for effects of uncertainty in
analyses of observations, estimates of initial conditions and model
structure and parameter uncertainty.  Results from recent experiments
for RFC test basins will be presented to show how we are approaching
these issues in our experimental ensemble prediction system and to show
some of the results of our approach. 

 

About the Speaker:  John Schaake is a versatile hydrologist who has
dealt with issues from urban hydrology to climate change. Throughout
that trajectory he has always maintained an avid interest in the very
real and pragmatic problem of flood forecasting.

 

Schaake made seminal contributions to many aspects of hydrologic science
individually and through his leadership role at the National Weather
Service Office of Hydrology. His work extends from detailed measurement
of rainfall and the resulting flow from parking areas, to disaggregation
of rainfall, to continental-scale hydroclimatology, particularly in the
context of GEWEX-GCIP.

 

Faculty Sponsor:       Soroosh Sorooshian

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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